standing on business

the stablecoin end game

Hi,

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The Boys

Writer: Deana

Editor: Miranda

Boys Club Stablecoin Club. It seems like every day there is new news of yet another stablecoin coming down the pipeline, and I’m starting to wonder what the stablecoin endgame looks like.

Are we headed toward a world where there is One Stablecoin To Rule Them All?

Or will the future be an ever-multiplying soup of branded, corporate, regional and/or use-case specific stables. Can I call them stables now?

Here are some scenarios.

Scenario 1: The Everything Dollar
In this world, one USD-backed stablecoin, say USDC, or the Bezos Buck™, gets crazy network effects. It becomes the settlement layer for everything from consumer payments to payroll. Regulators love it because it plays nice with banks, and US TradFi loves it because it perpetuates dollar dominance. Safe, boring and wildly profitable for like 12 guys.

Scenario 2: Corporate Silos
You get a stablecoin! They get a stablecoin! Everyone gets a stablecoin! PrimeCoin, TeslaToken, KrogerCoin. They’re interoperable-ish, but most are siloed into corporate platforms or specific networks. Your Starbucks wallet doesn’t talk to your Ethereum wallet doesn’t talk to your Chase wallet. Liquidity sucks. They ooze customer data so marketing departments love ‘em. It’s very corporate loyalty program-coded.

Scenario 3: Functional Silos
Stablecoins specialize. You use one for international payments (low fees), another for yield on your savings (good interest), etc. In this world, stablecoins are like apps on your phone: the best one for the job wins, and switching is relatively seamless. Liquidity flows throughout, somehow. Gorgeous in theory, might not work in practice.

Scenario 4: The Fed Enters The Chat
.gov ppl roll out a new version of FedNow or a CBDC and suddenly all your bank-issued stablecoins are just glorified UI layers on top of the same surveillance-laden rails. Zero privacy, all centralization. Crypto people hate it. Wall Street loves it. It’s like if the DMV made money.

Scenario 5: Darkcoins
Anonymous-ish stablecoins become dominant, offering ‘pegged’ stability without KYC. Governments freak out. Liquidity booms. Black markets get pretty efficient. Highly functional but highly fragile.

More likely? All of the above.
Right now we’re watching the stablecoin category expand before it contracts. There will be brand wars, bridge wars, jurisdictional crackdowns, etc. But eventually, consolidation will come, either by design (regulation), or by force (liquidity).

Did I miss a scenario? Reply to this email and lmk. I love to talk about stablecoins.

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